Pengaruh Harga Bahan Pangan Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32585/ags.v5i2.1859Keywords:
price, inflation, foodAbstract
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the effect of food prices on the development of inflation in Indonesia. Indonesia's inflation showed a declining pattern in 2017 to 2021. An analysis of the effect of food prices on inflation is needed to evaluate changes in food prices that cause and contribute to inflation. Food prices fluctuate in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 to 2021 because regional restrictions and mobility can affect the distribution process and availability of food ingredients. Food consumption had a fairly large proportion of total household consumption in developing countries, so changes in food prices would have an impact on economic conditions through demand and supply mechanisms. The analytical method used was multiple linear regression. The data used in the multiple linear regression analysis was secondary data consisting of food prices, namely rice, chicken meat, beef, chicken eggs, shallots, garlic, red chilies, cayenne pepper, cooking oil, granulated sugar and inflation for the July period. 2017 to July 2021. The results of the analysis explained that food ingredients shallots, rice, beef, and cooking oil had a significant effect with a negative coefficient direction on inflation, namely deflation tends to occur in food price movements. Garlic, chicken meat, and sugar had a positive effect on increasing inflation.
Keywords: Price, Inflation, Commodity
Downloads
References
A. Barri, M. (2019). A Simulation Showing the Role of Central Limit Theorem in Handling Non-Normal Distributions. American Journal of Educational Research, 7(8), 591–598. https://doi.org/10.12691/education-7-8-8
Al-Shawarby, S., & Selim, H. (2013). Are International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt’s High Inflation. Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, 36(2013), 61–81. http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-642-35697-1
Auer, R. A., & Mehrotra, A. (2014). Trade Linkages and The Globalisation of Inflation in Asia and The Pacific. Journal of International Money and Finance, 49(2014), 129–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.05.008
Bandara, J. S. (2013). What is Driving India’s Food Inflation? A Survey of Recent Evidence. South Asia Economic Journal, 14(1), 127–156. https://doi.org/10.1177/1391561413477944
Bhattacharya, R., & Jain, R. (2019). Can monetary policy stabilise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies. Economic Modelling, 89(2019), 122–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.005
Bhattacharya, R., & Sen Gupta, A. (2017). Drivers and Impact of Food Inflation in India. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 11(2), 146–168. https://doi.org/10.1080/17520843.2017.1351461
Boediono. (2005). Ekonomi Makro. PBFE Yogyakarta.
BPS. (2021). Data Kependudukan Semester I Tahun 2021. Badan Pusat Statistik, 1.
Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
Darma, D. C., Pusriadi, T., & Permadi, H. Y. (2018). Dampak Kenaikan Harga Komoditas Sembako terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia (Manajemen, Akuntansi, Dan Perbankkan 2018).
De Gregorio, J. (2012). Commodity prices, monetary policy, and inflation. IMF Economic Review, 60(4), 600–633. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2012.15
Fitrianto, A., & Hanafi, I. (2014). Exploring central limit theorem on world population density data. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1635, 737–741. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4903664
Holtemöller, O., & Mallick, S. (2016). Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India. Journal of Asian Economics, 46(2016), 56–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2016.08.005
Iddrisu, A. A., & Alagidede, I. P. (2020). Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis. Food Policy, 91(2020), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101816
Islam, M. R. (2018). Sample Size and Its Role in Central Limit Theorem (CLT). International Journal of Physics and Mathematics, 4(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.31295/pm.v1n1.42
Kemendag. (2020). Analisis Perkembangan Harga Bahan Pangan Pokok di Pasar Domestik dan Internasional. In Pusat Pengkajian Perdagangan Dalam Negeri. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajodo.2020.09.006
Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. (2020). Laporan Perkembangan Ekonomi Indonesia dan Dunia Triwulan III Tahun 2020. In R. H. Maulida (Ed.), Kementerian PPN/Bappenas (III/2020, Vol. 4, Issue 3). Kedeputian Bidang Ekonomi Kementerian PPN/Bappenas.
Mija, S., Slobozian, D., Cuhal, R., & Stratan, A. (2013). How Core Inflation Reacts to The Second Round Effects. Romanian Journal of
Economic Forecasting, 16(1), 98–118.
Moreira, R. R. (2014). Commodities Prices Volatility, Expected Inflation and GDP Levels: An Application for a Net-exporting Economy. Procedia Economics and Finance, 14(2014), 435–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00732-1
TPIP. (2017). Release Note Inflasi Desember 2017 (Issue Desember).
TPIP. (2018). Analisis Inflasi Desember 2018 Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Pusat (TPIP).
TPIP. (2019). Analisis Inflasi Desember 2019 Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Pusat (TPIP).
TPIP. (2020). Analisis Inflasi Desember 2020 Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Pusat (TPIP) (Issue Desember).
Tule, M. K., Salisu, A. A., & Chiemeke, C. C. (2019). Can agricultural Commodity Prices Predict Nigeria’s Inflation? Journal of Commodity Markets, 16(2019), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2019.02.002
Widiarsih, D. (2012). Pengaruh Sektor Komoditi Beras Terhadap Inflasi Bahan Makanan. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pembangunan, 2(6), 244–256. https://ejournal.unri.ac.id/index.php/JSEP/article/view/863
